Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.4)
(147)
36,373
U.S. stocks moved modestly higher over the course of the trading session on
Nifty
(0.3)
(28)
10,980
Wednesday after initially showing a lack of direction. The Dow reached its best
Mid Cap
(1.3)
(195)
15,181
closing level in a month. While the Dow Jones increased up by 0.3% to 25,199, the
Small Cap
(0.9)
(152)
15,815
Nasdaq was flat at 7,854.
Bankex
(0.7)
(199)
29,721
U.K. stocks rose for a second straight session on Wednesday and the pound drifted
lower to hit its lowest level in 10 months after U.K. inflation data missed forecasts.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
The consumer price index unexpectedly came in flat at 2.4 percent year-over-year
versus expectations for a 2.6 percent rise, raising questions over whether the Bank of
Dow Jones
0.3
79
25,199
England will deliver an August rate hike. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.7%
Nasdaq
0.0
(1)
7,854
to 7,686.
FTSE
0.7
50
7,686
On domestic front, Indian shares fell from record highs to end slightly lower
Nikkei
0.4
97
22,794
yesterday after Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan accepted a no-confidence
Hang Seng
(0.2)
(64)
28,117
motion against the Modi government proposed by the TDP and opposition parties.
Shanghai Com
(0.4)
(11)
2,787
The debate on the motion will be held on Friday, July 20th. The discussion will be
held for the full day, followed by voting on it. The BSE Sensex was down by 0.4% to
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
36,373.
Advances
857
1,056
News Analysis
Declines
1,751
761
Road Ministry allows in-use vehicles to raise axle load by 25 per cent
Unchanged
132
82
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
BSE
2,566
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
NSE
29,629
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
FII
(540)
(1,767)
-6,607
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
*MFs
14
1,395
69,998
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
662
867
30.9
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
621
720
16.0
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
289
410
41.7
FCONSUMER
44
7.1
Bata India
Others
Buy
828
948
14.5
NAUKRI
1348
5.9
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
413
589
42.7
ICIL
84
5.0
More Top Picks on Pg4
RADICO
344
5.0
Key Upcoming Events
IBULHSGFIN
1200
4.1
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Jul 19, 2018
US
Existing home sales
5.43
5.46
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jul 23, 2018
US
Initial Jobless claims
214.00
220.00
ASHOKLEY
111
-13.9
Jul 23, 2018
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(0.50)
TATASTEELPP
99
-10.0
Jul 24, 2018
Germany PMI Services
54.50
HCC
10
-6.4
Jul 24, 2018
Germany PMI Manufacturing
55.90
More Events on Pg7
JINDALSTEL
186
-6.3
PCJEWELLER
78
-6.0
As on July 18, 2018
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
News Analysis
Road Ministry allows in-use vehicles to raise axle load by
25 per cent
Soon after the government announcement of a 25 per cent increase in the
permitted load capacity of trucks and trailers, it has extended the same benefit to
existing or in-use heavy vehicles. The Ministry of Road Transport
and Highways issued an advisory in this regard on Wednesday. The higher limit
would apply to the trucks, tractors, and trailers, if their gross value weight was
approved under the Central Motor Vehicles Rules.
The central government had said the decision to increase load capacity was taken
after discussion with stakeholders. With this, vehicle logistics cost would reduce by
16-18 per cent, it estimated. Enabling a
2 per cent reduction in overall
transportation cost as well, Union Road Minister Nitin Gadkari had said, apart
from cutting the incidence of bribery to overlook overloading. He has assured strict
enforcement of the new rules. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers has
welcomed the step as one in right direction for commercial transport.
Under the new rules, the gross vehicle weight (GVW) of a two-axle truck (two
wheels in the front axle and four wheels at the back) has been increased to 18.5
tonnes, from the existing 16.2 tonnes. For a three-axle truck, to 28.5 tonnes from
25 tonnes; for a five-axle one, to 43.5 tonnes from 37 tonnes.
Economic and Political News
Govt hikes sugarcane price by Rs 20 per quintal to Rs 275 from October
Indian shipping cos struggle due to trade war, corrective pollution actions
High coal prices, weak rupee leading to a crisis in power generation firms
Odisha allows 20% capital investment subsidy for IT, ITes, ESDM firms
EPFO invested nearly Rs 489.46 bn in exchange-traded funds till June 30
Corporate News
Sun Pharma gets USFDA approval to produce cancer injection from Halol site
HDFC will keep its stake above 50% in HDFC MF, says MD Milind Barve
DoT looking into Voda-Idea's plea on dues re-computation: Telecom secy
Essar steel bid: NCLAT reserves order on Numetal and ArcelorMittal pleas
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd - July 19, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr)
4QFY18E
4QFY17
y-o-y (%)
3QFY18
q-o-q (%)
PAT
1,213
912
33
1,124
8
Baja Finance Ltd - July 19, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr)
4QFY18E
4QFY17
y-o-y (%)
3QFY18
q-o-q (%)
PAT
841
602
40
720
17
Baja Finserv Ltd - July 19, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr)
4QFY18E
4QFY17
y-o-y (%)
3QFY18
q-o-q (%)
PAT
757
655
16
685
11
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,368
662
867
30.9
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,464
621
720
16.0
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,68,900
263
416
58.4
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,235
413
589
42.7
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,651
289
475
64.1
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,446
522
851
63.1
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,83,010
9,369
10,619
13.3
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,826
339
655
93.1
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,561
700
720
2.8
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
27,351
124
218
75.5
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,434
289
410
41.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,661
731
1,016
39.0
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,66,678
2,176
2,315
6.4
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
16.4
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
1,12,167
902
1,050
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,940
935
1,230
31.6
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
10,638
828
948
14.5
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
28,095
1,238
1,764
42.5
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,032
186
350
88.2
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,182
809
1,020
26.1
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
33,777
577
780
35.2
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
88,493
384
418
8.9
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
23,780
565
670
18.6
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,631
273
360
31.9
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,409
1,614
2,178
34.9
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,623
2,048
2,500
22.1
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,530
206
395
91.5
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
30,206
151
210
38.8
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Thursday
July 19, 2018
ABB, Kotak Mah. Bank, D B Corp
Friday
July 20, 2018
Bajaj Auto, CEAT, Wipro
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 19, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
5.46
Jul 23, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 14
214.00
220.00
7:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
1:00 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Jul 25, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
670.00
Jul 26, 2018
5:15 PMEuro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
Jul 27, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q A
2.00
4.00
Jul 31, 2018
1:25 PMGermany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jul
(15.00)
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
51.50
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
126.40
126.50
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
0.40
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research as on 17 July, 2018
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
78,130
9.4
(7.4)
24.0
Russia
Micex
4,398
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,008
1.7
4.3
10.7
China
Shanghai Composite
2,798
(7.8)
(10.4)
(13.2)
South Africa
Top 40
49,996
(2.1)
(0.4)
6.5
Mexico
Mexbol
48,705
3.8
(0.5)
(5.1)
Indonesia
LQ45
920
(5.1)
(7.7)
(6.1)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,737
(1.4)
(6.6)
(1.9)
Thailand
SET 50
1,068
(2.1)
(6.9)
8.6
USA
Dow Jones
25,120
(0.2)
2.2
16.4
UK
FTSE
7,626
(0.1)
5.9
2.6
Japan
Nikkei
22,697
(0.2)
4.8
13.9
Germany
DAX
12,662
(0.7)
1.3
2.4
France
CAC
5,423
(0.0)
1.3
6.3
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 17 July, 2018
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 19, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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